As always, this is my own unique theory that if trade is like this, then it will be like this. Economics textbooks may say something different. This is my own opinion. Please understand.
Now.
Now, let's say the other country, A, has a gross domestic product of $100.
And let's say your country, J, has a gross domestic product of ¥100.
Let's say that person in your country exchanges their currency in their own country to buy things in your own country, J. The exchange rate is $1 = ¥2.
A person from other country, A, comes to your own country, J, with ¥2, buys something worth ¥2, and returns to their own country.
Country A's gross domestic product is currently $99.
Country J's gross domestic product is currently ¥102.
...That's right. Money is sucked up. When you buy goods from other countries through trade, it's strange, but your own country's money actually flows out to other countries. ...Well, some of you may have vaguely thought that this was probably the case, but when you see it so clearly, you're probably like... Huh?!
...Now.
For those who have noticed.
...That's right! Our country, Japan. We're buying up a lot of oil from the Middle East! It's strange, but for some reason, the money printed by the Bank of Japan is decreasing. It's decreasing...and so...it seems that there's a lot of that money in the Middle East.
If the Middle East comes to Japan to buy goods and a lot of Japanese goods aren't sold, the money that should be in Japan won't come back. That's what it means, right?
In other words, it's like the number of stacks of banknotes in one's own country. If the ideal number decreases, it means that the country is losing out in trade and making purchases. If the number increases, it means that goods are being sold in other countries...that's what it means. It might be best to make adjustments so that this number doesn't fluctuate or change for the time being. ...Well, we're not sure yet, are we?
So then.
He sells oil and receives Japanese yen. He goes back to his country and converts it into his own country's paper money.
What if the exchange amount is large? ...Hmm... Then he'd ask the Japan Mint to print banknotes worth the exchange amount... That's how it goes, right? The oil major is making a killing. So...
But then, what about the banks? They hold Japanese banknotes worth the profits from their own banknotes. That's why they won't go bankrupt. ...Um...huh?
If I get into a pinch, how do I exchange these Japanese banknotes? If I go to Japan and ask them to exchange them for my country's banknotes... will they give me? ...Um...huh... Probably not, right? Because they can't print their country's money. I want to give them to them, so I need a reserve fund for exchange, so I'll give them Japanese yen, and in return I'll ask for an equivalent amount of your country's currency, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on. ...Huh? ...What's going on here? Huh?
That's not possible. So the Japan Mint could print banknotes worth the exchange amount for the banks. This is one solution they could take. And when they do this... have you noticed? Wow, what would be left behind would be waste paper in the form of stacks of Japanese yen bills. This money would float. Stacks of Japanese bills in that country.
Wow. Is this really possible? I'm still thinking about it, though. I mean, if the Japan Mint printed the exchange amount for the banks, the Japanese yen would be left behind. Stacks of Japanese yen bills would just be left over, right? What should we do with them?
If this is the case, what are the preventative measures... hmm... I don't know... Maybe we could pay in the other country's currency... But that would require a trade reserve beforehand, and once the exchange procedure is done, the other country ends up saving Japanese yen, right?
If we just accounted for the purchase and sale, and the transaction was just numbers, and there was an internationally recognized rule that the mint could print the amount, perhaps it would work... Like issuing a check or something like a receipt. You gain 100 of the other country's money. Your country loses 200 at the exchange rate. The other country makes 100. They can print 100 of the profit, just according to the books. Is that right... How should we handle the amount that was lost? Hmm... It's all complicated and I don't really understand...
Well, I'm not very knowledgeable, so this is just a guess, right?
The partner country that made a profit through trade probably has wads of its own currency floating around in its own country. These wads of money, the profits from trade, are returned, and a centralized reception desk for the profit return is created. Then, all of the excess money received through this desk is incinerated. If we do this, the numbers will match, right? That way, it's easy for people overseas to understand how to dispose of it. ...Hmm...
Of course, there are ways to use the Japanese yen they have in Japan, such as buying buildings or trucks and spending them. That's the option of not converting it into cash.
In other words, the gold obtained through trade exports remains the currency of the other country.
It's a dangerous idea, but why not just occupy it, make it your own territory, and use it for domestic demand? In that case, wouldn't you be officially obtaining it as spoils of war, as a bundle of your own country's currency? ...Just kidding.
Now.
An idea as a countermeasure. Well, not exactly a short-term solution, though?
First, we will create a unified world bank. Here, we will use a currency that will be used exclusively by the unified bank. This currency will be prohibited from all transactions except for the conversion into foreign currency, and conversion will be prohibited except through official channels and designated organizations. Other countries' currencies obtained through exports will be converted into the unified bank currency. The mint will be allowed to print the amount converted.
...Hmm... this is getting complicated. It may not work... I'll put this on hold.
Setting up branches of one's own country's banks in other countries. This might be a good idea. On the surface, the bank chain as a whole would have the appearance of having a profit. It would be in a foreign currency, right? But the branch would be in another country. At least. But then, you wouldn't know what would happen if you withdrew your deposits. However, this bank could invest, right? I wonder if that would make sense? There would be meaning in being invested. I'm not sure if this would be a fundamental solution... I wonder if it would be possible to withdraw savings in the home country in the form of an exchange of figures... But what about this stack of bills? It's not like they'd disappear.It seems to me that the amount of bills exchanged is being designated little by little in bank vaults, with unknown owners. This number of bills has just become ownerless. That's the only thing that will happen. After all, the number won't decrease unless banks buy products from other countries with their own currencies and consume them...or even if it's not banks. If the Mint prints the amount exchanged, it will feel like they've lost.
Buying trucks made in other countries and using them in your own country. This is the most sound line, for now. Inviting construction workers from other countries to your country, having them build skyscrapers, and paying them their wages in their own country's currency. This is the most sound line, for now.
Let's summarize the problems.
In short, the profits earned from trade are only in the currency of the trading partner country, not your own. That's the point. At least in the current system, there's no way to handle this properly. Therefore, the profits earned from trade are only in the currency of the trading partner country; they cannot be converted into cash of your country.
There are currently two possible solutions.
One is incineration. The mint would print the equivalent amount of currency from the other country. The other country's currency would then be incinerated at this stage.
Specifically, the other country would be asked to establish a central receiving point for the floating gold, where all transactions would be consolidated.
Alternatively, under a global treaty, a global organization could receive and incinerate the gold in a single transaction.
Another method involves not having the mint print money with the money exchanged, but rather using that money to buy goods from the other country. For example, having a building on your country constructed of other country's workers and paying to other country's workers for it in the other country's currency, or buying a car from the other country and paying for it in their currency. This method involves investing in one's own country and oneself, thereby promoting development.
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